You have had a Pap test that showed abnormal cells but not cancer. You want to know
your chance of testing positive for cancer at your next Pap test within the next
year.
Pap Test (Smear) - This test is performed during a regular office visit to
a doctor. A doctor uses a wooden scraper and/or a small brush to collect a sample
of cells from the cervix and upper vagina. These cells are placed on a slide and
sent to a laboratory to check for abnormalities. Studies suggest that the death rate
of cervical cancer will decrease if women who are or have been sexually active or
who are in their late teens or older have regular Pap tests.
The number of new cases and deaths due to cervical cancer is decreasing each year.
This is largely due to better screening efforts. The best way to detect cervical
cancer early is with a Pap smear test.
Anything that increases a person's chance of developing a disease is called a risk
factor. Some of these risk factors for cervical cancer are:
- Age - Rates of cervical cancer that has not spread to other parts of the
body (called "in situ") reach a peak between the ages of 20 and 30. After the age
of 25, the number of cases of invasive cervical cancer increases with age in both
white and black women, but it increases more rapidly in black women. The chance
of dying of cervical cancer increases as women get older.
- Pap Test (Smear) History - Women who have never had a Pap test or who have
not had one for several years have a higher-than-average risk of cervical cancer
at the next Pap test.
- HPV Infection - At least 2 dozen types of human papillomavirus (HPV) are
transmitted sexually and can infect the cervix. About half of these have been linked
to cervical cancer. Cervical infection with HPV is an important risk factor for
cervical cancer. However, HPV infection is very common and only a very small percentage
of women infected with untreated HPV will develop cervical cancer.
- Risky Sexual Behavior - The two factors most commonly linked to cervical
cancer are age at first intercourse and number of lifetime sexual partners. Women
who have unprotected sex at any age may also be at a greater risk for cervical cancer.
One possible explanation for these risk factors is that these women have a higher
chance of contracting HPV infection,.
- Smoking - Researchers have found tobacco in the cervical mucus in women who
smoke and suspect that the cigarette chemicals absorbed by the body may have something
to do with the DNA damage that occurs in cancer cells.
- Oral Contraceptive Use - There is a possibility that women who use oral contraceptives
may be at a greater risk than women who use barrier methods of birth control (like
condoms for example).
Prediction Method
An advanced statistical method called artificial neural network regression
(ANN) is used to make your predictions. Your factors are entered into the artificial
neural network model. The model uses this information to predict your chance of
testing positive for cervical cancer at your next Pap smear test.